ATP Stockholm: Day 1

WE’VE spent some time since the Grand Slams to work on our tennis analytics and after a 2-0 showing in Shanghai last week we’re ready to get to work.

Here’s our best bet for Day 1 in Stockholm:

Simone Bolelli v Illya Marchenko

There’s a reason Marchenko is dropping quickly across the board with the bookies – to put it simply, they got the price very wrong to open.

After the two started at near even money it seems punters are jumping on the Ukranian in this one.

Marchenko is playing some solid tennis in his preferred surface, winning nine of his last 10 overall.

After taking out the Izmir Challenger in Turkey last month, he made the final four in his following event which included eliminating French duo Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut.

While the pair haven’t met since 2014, Marchenko does hold a slender 2-1 head-to-head advantage over his Italian opponent who can’t seem to find any consistency at the moment.

His last tournament appearance was in Metz last month where he was eliminated in the opening round by Marcel Granollers as a $1.64 favourite.

Marchenko meanwhile has thrived as a favourite, losing just once in his past 20 matches when valued at less than $1.75.

The sharp money is one Marchenko and it’s hard to see him being beaten here – especially on an indoor court.

The indoor court will always favour an attacking style of play, and the Ukrainian will certainly be the one to hit more winners in this one.

Expect a host of unforced errors from Bolelli who will likely crumble the moment things start going against him.

Our numbers are giving Marchenko a 72% chance of winning here giving us massive value at his current price.

We may have missed the best number on him but we advise you get on board now before the odds tumble any further.

Tip: Illya Marchenko @ $1.72

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