Early value bets AFL: Round 14

IT was a profitable outing for us in Round 13 but we’re casting an early eye ahead.

Here’s our early value tips that could change before game day:

Adelaide v Hawthorn

The question for this game isn’t ‘who’ll get the four points?’ but rather, ‘how many points will Hawthorn lose by?’

We reckon we’ve got the answer. Both clubs are coming off bye-rounds so will be refreshed for the game.

The ladder-leading Crows are currently sitting on 9-3, and headed into the bye-round with a 57-point annihilation of St Kilda.

The Hawks are a completely different story, coming into round 14 with four wins, eight losses and an embarrassing defeat against the Gold Coast Suns in round 12.

Unless they produce a miracle – the Crows will be more than comfortable on home soil against Clarkson’s struggling Hawks.

Prediction: Adelaide -46.5 @ $1.80

Sydney v Essendon

The Swans have turned their season around winning five of their past six games and have restored that fear factor the Bloods once had.

Sydney had to fight back from a large deficit against the Tigers last week to maintain their form which saw them beat the Premiers the week prior.

The Bombers are going into the match-up newly refreshed from a bye-round, which many would argue could go against them considering their best performance of the season came against the Power the week before their bye.

Essendon have always struggled on the road and the likelihood of a win at the SCG looks slim.

Prediction: Sydney -14.5 @ $1.85

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

The notion of a ‘premiership hangover’ is a label almost perfectly designed to fit the struggling Dogs, who have now lost four of their past five games.

The Premiers currently sit just outside the top eight but a win over the Kangaroos can see them leapfrog up to four other sides.

Whilst the Bulldogs have struggled with putting points on the board, the Kangaroos have slumped in their disposal efficiency, with their kick-to-handball ratio and rookie errors proving to be their downfall against the Saints last week.

A loss for North Melbourne could see them kiss finals contentions goodbye – making this a must win for both.

Expect a tight and tense affair in this one, with the 16.5 handicap likely to drop before game day.

Prediction: North Melbourne +16.5 @ 1.90

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