Early value bets: AFL Round 15

HERE’S our early value bets for Round 15 of the AFL:

Melbourne Demons v Sydney Swans

The Demons will be looking for their fifth win in a row against an inform Sydney side in what will be a Friday Night Blockbuster.

Melbourne’s narrow win over West Coast puts them as very narrow favourite at this stage heading into Friday night’s game.

Nathan Jones misses out again for the Demons, which will force Jack Viney to have another cracking performance – should he be fit enough to feature.

Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker are in excellent form as well as Josh Kennedy who racked up 28 disposals and kicked a goal last week.

The value behind Sydney is far too good to turn down, and we’ll back the Swans to win outright.

Prediction: Sydney Swans @ $1.95

GWS Giants v Geelong

The game of the round, a clash between two of the top-four sides, should break the record attendance for a non-Sydney derby at Spotless Stadium.

The Giants needed that win over Brisbane last week after slumping to defeat against Carlton the week prior.

Geelong have also performed poorly as of late, with a scraping win against Fremantle last round doing more harm than good for their reputation at the moment.

This is only the fourth time the Cats have started a game as underdogs over the past 12 months – their last three times they’ve gone on to win.

Despite what the market suggests, there really isn’t that much between the two sides and the line is quite mouthwatering for the Cats.

We’ll grab the points on offer before they come in.

Prediction: Geelong +19.5 @ $1.92

Essendon Bombers v Brisbane Lions

The Bombers are still wiping their tears after last weeks heartbreaking one-point loss to the Swans.

However, a confidence booster against bottom-placed Brisbane is now on the cards and they should get the win with little fuss made.

The Lions put up a good fight against the Dons last time they played but will be without skipper Dayne Beams this time around who misses with an AC joint injury.

Essendon have only been favourites at home once this season and they failed to get the job done, but their overall record at Etihad Stadium is quite strong.

Essendon should win, and comfortably too, however with the line set at 43.5 we’re quite confident the Lions are capable of covering it.

Prediction: Brisbane +43.5 @ $1.92

Hawthorn v Collingwood

The last time these two sides met was just a little over a month ago, which resulted in a classic tale of two halves.

The Hawks came out strong but dozed off in the second half, which allowed the Pies to get home with an 18-point win.

Jamie Elliot and Daniel Wells were vital in their round nine clash with the Hawks but both miss this weekends game.

Collingwood may be favourites but their season looked to have crash and burned last week against Port Adelaide – and they’ve only won four of their past nine games as favourites.

Neither side have enjoyed a great season but Hawthorn look to be in better shape and should get the job done.

Prediction: Hawthorn @ $2.05

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