IT’S been a near perfect week so far in the NFL and we look to keep that going in today’s meeting in Kansas City.
The Chiefs will look to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games when they welcome an out of sorts Denver Broncos team to Arrowhead Stadium.
To say Denver’s offence has been off the boil in recent weeks would be a drastic understatement.
The team is averaging just 11 points per game in their last three starts, but there is some good news coming into this one – they are squaring off against a very leaky defence that showed their vulnerabilities in last week’s loss to Oakland.
in their three wins this season, Denver has run for 140+ yards and if they’re to help Trevor Siemian find his composure again in the pocket it will come on the back of rediscovering that run game.
Kansas City currently rank 26th in the league in rushing defence, allowing 124.6 yards per game in that category.
Their total yards allowed doesn’t read much better, with the Chiefs currently allowing 408.4 total yards per game.
Offensively however, the Chiefs have no problem putting points on the board thanks in large to the consistent arm of Alex Smith.
They too are in need of rediscovering their lethal run game that allowed Smith to throw at 72% during the teams 5-0 start to the year.
The Broncos still own one of the best push rush defences in the league and so the importance of rookie sensation Kareem Hunt cannot be understated in this one.
While the public has an understandable lean on the Unders we have our money firmly placed on the Overs in a game that will see two teams desperate to stop their slide and return to winning ways.
The Overs is 4-0 in the Broncos last four road games against teams with a winning record. The chance for them to score against a vulnerable defence will almost certainly drive this number above the total, especially when all we ask of them is 17-20 points.
The Chiefs meanwhile has seen plenty of high scoring games this season, and the back end of last season, with the team seeing five of their last seven overall go Over the points total.
History also favourable our play here, with the Overs going 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between the teams.
We have KC putting up 26+ points once again and that’s more than enough to push this one Overs given their defence’s inability to hold out their opponents.
Tip: Over 42.0 points @ $1.91