NBA best bets: Sunday, 3 December

A frustrating 1-1 split yesterday hasn’t derailed a strong week as we still sit at 6-2 since Monday.

Here’s our best bet for the days action:

Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks

It was only a few days ago that the Bucks handed this young Sacramento team a beatdown on their home court – now they’ll look to do the same again in this one.

Milwaukee are slowing figuring things out at last as they look to establish themselves as a genuine top four team in the East, and they’ll get a good chance to keep this momentum going against the Kings.

Jason Kidd’s team return home after a four-game road trip out West hoping to establish some home court dominance, and there’s every reason to believe they will.

The early-MVP form of Giannis Antetokounmpo seems to have eased off a little and the Greek Freak will want to re-establish that form as we head into the Christmas period.

We haven’t seen the triple-double form we know he’s capable of, but we have seen more than enough to convince us that the 4.5 assist total is way off the mark.

In the last eight wins that Antetokounmpo has featured in he has eclipsed this number six times. In fact, since returning from injury he has at least five assists in all three appearances.

Eric Bledsoe’s arrival has meant he hasn’t played the role of playmaker as he once did but with the attention he draws on offence he’ll always have a spare man to find.

We don’t see how this doesn’t come off given that the Bucks should pile on upwards of 110 points again, and that he’ll be forced to move the ball on double-team situations. This is a small line for a player that’s been hitting over this number during the teams wins.

Tip: Giannis Antetokounmpo o/4.5 assists @ $1.81 (Sportsbet)

UPDATE:

New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trailblazers

No Anthony Davis, no hope for the Pelicans, right?

AD will be evaluated back in New Orleans tomorrow, but meanwhile the team heads to Portland with everyone needing to step up and help contribute.

Rajón Rondo has certainly found himself a home under Alvin Gentry and we’ve seen better production from him this season despite his limited minutes.

What’s interesting however is that the bookies are clearly overestimating how he will score in this one – especially against a good Portland defence.

The former Kentucky guard is averaging just 5.7 points per game in 22.7 minutes – yet the line sits at 9.5?

Yes, Rondo is coming off a good scoring night against the Jazz where he put up 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting but aside from that game he has not scored over 9.5 points in any of his last five straight games prior.

In fact, not including that game against the Jazz, he has scored over 9.5 points just once in his last eight appearances this season.

Both times he’s scored over have been in high-scoring games where the tempo has meant more possessions and more opportunity in transition. That simply won’t be the case here.

Portland are allowing just 99.0 points per game this season and the tempo will be far slower than what Rondo will require to eclipse this number.

Take the Unders with confidence here as we’re projecting him to finish with less than seven points here.

Tip: Rajon Rondo u/9.5 points @ $1.88 (Crownbet)

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