NBA best bets: Wednesday, 15 November

WE got back to winning ways with our NBA tips and are 5-2 over the last three days.

Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:

San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

It’s rare to see public money and sharp money so heavily invested on the same number, but that’s very much the case in this one.

The Spurs are rolling once more and they’re now heading to a building where they’ve won on their last four straight visits.

San Antonio’s 37 point demolition of Chicago was impressive, especially since most of the heavy lifting was done by their bench. LaMarcus Aldridge got plenty of rest (playing just 21 minutes) and the team heads to Dallas in good stead overall.

On the other side of the coin, the Mavericks are free-falling early on in the season and they may well fall in line and happily tank the rest of the season in hopes of a top-3 lottery pick.

The team has lost seven of their last eight overall and have failed to cover the line in eight of their last nine home games.

The biggest concern for Dallas is their inability to compete on the boards – they currently allow teams to out-rebound them by an average of 5.1 boards per game.¬†Nerlens Noel was brought in specifically to target that area but he is struggling to cement minutes in Rick Carlisle’s system for reasons unknown.

Dallas is currently allowing teams to score an average of¬†107.7 points per game, which becomes an even bigger issue when their offence is averaging under 100 points. Meanwhile, San Antonio is holding opponents to just over 99 points per game and we don’t see them having any trouble dealing with the Mavericks offence in this one.

As much as we love Dirk Nowitzki and what he’s done for the Dallas organisation he is quite simply a liability this season – he’s shooting 28% from beyond the arc and is simply a bystander on the boards and on defence.

San Antonio’s big men will likely boss him around in the paint and we don’t see him making much of a contribution anywhere on the stat sheet.

Our projections have a strong lean on the Spurs in this one – the road team have covered the spread in four of their last five games overall and four of their last five on the road versus teams with losing home record.

The road team has also covered five of the last six meetings between these sides. There is suggestion Danny Green won’t play, in which case we advise holding off until he is cleared. We have two plays on offer here, with the player performance a lock regardless.

Tip: San Antonio Spurs -6.5 @ $1.92 (Centrebet) & Dirk Nowitzki u/5.5 rebounds @ $1.77 (Crownbet)

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