NBA best bets: Wednesday, 29 November

WE finally hit back with a deserving 2-0 NBA day yesterday to keep us a perfect 3-0 on the week.

Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

The Nuggets have impressed in the absence of All-Star forward Paul Millsap but will be tested on the road in Utah.

The Jazz have won back-to-back games on their home court and it seems the team is adjusting to life without Rudy Gobert by changing the tempo at which they play.

We all know Utah are traditionally one of the slowest teams in the NBA and rely on their half court execution and defensive lockdown to stifle opponents into submission.

Without a clear rim protector they’ve been forced to adjust their style and it seems coach Snyder has worked out a Plan B at last for the team.

Denver seem to be executing their Plan B just fine without Millsap, although consistency remains a problem for the Nuggets at the moment.

Their reliance on big man Nikola Jokic is obvious but its the input of their other forwards, Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee, that are key to helping them maintain their style of play.

On the defensive end, we’ve seen a big improvement in productivity from Wilson Chandler in particular and the team seems to have all lifted in the helping to crash the boards and secure the rebound.

The question for Denver is whether the likes of Chandler and Plumlee are fit to suit up in Salt Lake City. If one or both players are missing the Nuggets will be faced with a huge task on the road against an improving Jazz outfit.

What’s interesting in this match up for us is that the Nuggets have a distinct advantage on the boards, regardless of personnel, but the markets aren’t adjusting the player props to reflect this.

Australian Joe Ingles has seen an uptick in productivity in Gobert’s absence, but one thing that remains steady is his rebounding.

The market currently sits at 4.5, which is just under his season average of 4.2 rebounds per game.

In his last seven games, Ingles has gone over 4.5 rebounds just once – and that came against the Bulls who can’t seem to do much right at the moment.

The change in tempo in recent games has meant his defensive presence after the shot has gone down as the Jazz look to run the floor. There’s a greater emphasis on the likes of Derrick Favours,┬áDonovan Mitchell and even┬áThabo Sefolosha to secure the rebounds in order for their shooters to find open looks down the other end of the court.

The Nuggets have won just one of their last five on the road, and failed to cover the line in all of those losses. Consistency also remains an issue, with the team covering just one of their last seven overall when covering the line the game before.

The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the pair, while the favourite is 11-1 against the spread in the past 12 games. Denver hasn’t enjoyed its time in Utah recently and we don’t expect that to change here.

We’ve got a strong lean on both plays here – now let’s stay perfect for the week!

Tip: Utah Jazz -1.0 @ $1.87 (Unibet) & Joe Ingles u/4.5 rebounds @ $1.80 (Crownbet)

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