NBA best bets: Wednesday, 6 December

OUR NBA form is certainly coming to fruition and we look to keep that going this week.

Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:

Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors

The Suns have been impressive on their East coast road trip, but should have a tough time keeping up with the Raptors on the second night of a back-to-back.

Phoenix make the trip north to face a well-rested Raptors team that remains one of the best offensive units in the NBA.

One man whose offensive numbers have dropped this season is Raptors Centre Jonas Valanciunas.

The big man is averaging 10.5 points per game this season, which is his lowest production since his rookie season.

A lot of that, however, has to do with the fact his minutes have been rather inconsistent this season – which is a combination of injury and rotation under Dwane Casey.

The 25-year-old has shown signs of his old self in the past couple games though, and we expect his minutes to rise again now that he’s back to looking healthy again.

JV is currently averaging 20.4 minutes per game, which is well down on the 25.8 minutes he was averaging last season and the 25.9 minutes per game he’s averaged since entering the league.

It’s easy to see why his points total is sitting at 10.5 on most bookies but that’s based purely on simple data without actually analysing his true efficiency and performance.

Valanciunas has gone over 10.5 in his last three straight games – all of which have seen him play 20+ minutes.

In fact, in his last six games where he’s played at least 20 minutes he’s scored above 10.5 points in five of them.

With the Suns playing on a back-to-back and having to take a red-eye flight across the border we expect the Raptors to play with intensity and look to pound them inside from the get-go.

We’re projecting JV to play an estimated 24 minutes here, which makes the 10.5 line a great price given what we’ve seen from him when he’s given minutes. We’re posting this early to avoid any more sudden line movements for our followers.

Tip: Jonas Valanciunas o/10.5 points @ $1.88 (Crownbet)

UPDATE:

JV remains a consistent threat on the boards and is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game this season. In the games he’s played 20+ minutes his points & rebounds total have gone over 17.5 in six straight game. We’re willing to double down on JV knowing that minutes are the only reason why we won’t cash in on both.

Tip: Jonas Valanciunas o/17.5 points & rebounds @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

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