NCAA Football: Week 9

IT’S been rough to say the least in College football this past week and we need to prove ourselves once again.

Here’s our best bets for the upcoming action:

UCF @ Navy

Central Florida have been a punters dream this season, and have served us right every time we’ve backed them.

The team is 5-0 on the season but even more impressive is that they’re 5-0 against the spread as well. Not only are they covering the line, but they’re covering by an average of 20 points!

They’re the number one scoring offence in the country and that’s thanks in large to the fact they’re averaging over 50 points a game at the moment.

While we know that they’ll score points, especially with QB McKenzie Milton completing 70% of his pass attempts and throwing just two interceptions to 15 TD’s, it’s their run defence that will be key here.

Navy run the triple-option offence and will never stray from their ground game, but they’re coming up against a side that ranks 18th in the nation against the run, giving up just 110.2 yards per game on the ground.

It’s interesting to see the line sit at just above a TD given how destructive UCF has been on offence, and home field advantage certainly doesn’t make up for what should be at least a 10.0 handicap.

We’re got UCF covering 73% of the time and feel this offence, coupled with their run defence, will find a way to blow out the Midshipmen in this one.

Tip: UCF -7.5 @ $1.90 (2 units)

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech

North Carolina’s season has no signs of improving and a trip to face Virginia Tech will likely just compound their miseries.

Their issues at quarterback continue to take up headlines for the program, with Chazz Surratt and Brandon Harris combining to throw nine interceptions on the year – 13th-most in the country.

Their inability to convert on third-down is a huge issue as well, with the Tar Heels making good on less than 30% of their third down plays – one of the worst conversation rates in the nation.

Virginia Tech boast one of the best pass defences in the country and they’ll have no problem forcing incompletions and turnovers from this Tar Heels offence.

What’s worse for North Carolina is they’ve failed to cover the line in the last four meetings between the two sides, and are 0-6 against the spread in their last six conference games.

Given the team will struggle to score points it’s easy to point to a Hokies win and cover, but the other big lean here is on the points total.

13 of the past 16 games played by Virginia Tech after a bye have gone Under the points total, while the six meetings between the pair played in Virginia Tech have also fallen Under the total.

Our data has a big lean on the Unders here, with our projections showing a combined 44 points being scored here. We also have the home side covering 66% of the time against a team that will struggle to move the chains with regularity.

Tip: Virginia Tech -20.0 @ $1.85 & Under 51.5 @ $1.90

Punter Problems College Football multi:

UCF Knights
South Florida Bulls
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

$2.34 (2 units)

Leave a Reply