OUR last play was a comfortable 26 points winner to help us cash on our biggest NCAAB play of the season.
Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:
Valparaiso @ Purdue
To say we’re surprised at the opening number in this one would be one of the biggest understatements of the year.
Purdue are undoubtedly the better program and possess the better players individually, but there isn’t much debating about how well Valparaiso are playing as a team right now.
To see them as double-digit underdogs is surprising, but to see them as 15.5 point underdogs is almost staggering.
Yes, there is every chance that the Crusaders fall under the spotlight and pressure of trying to contain the best team they’ve face this year but the value here is too good to ignore.
Let’s remember that Valparaiso is 8-0 on the season, with a very impressive 4-1 record against the spread to match – the only game they failed to cover was a seven-point win last start against Utah State when they were 8.0 points favourites.
The team has covered the line in 10 of their last 14 games on the road and we have them down as being just 8.5/9.0 point underdogs on a neutral court. The simple fact is Purdue aren’t 7.5 points better on their home court.
While the Boilermakers have had a slightly tougher schedule, they also own two disappointing losses when placed as 8.5 and 19.5 point favourites against Tennessee and Western Kentucky respectively.
This is easily the toughest defence that Purdue have had to face, and while they score 86.5 points per game they’re now facing a team that allows just 64.7 points per game and holds opponents to just 36.1% shooting from the field.
The concern for Purdue is that not only are Valparaiso capable of holding teams out with their suffocating defence, they can also score at a very efficient rate.
On the road, they’re shooting at 52.7% from the field while averaging 94.0 points per game – that includes shooting at a super impressive 56.3% from beyond the arc.
There’s too much to like about Valparaiso not to take the points on offer. Sharp money in Vegas was quick to bring the line from 16.5 down to 15.5 and we won’t be surprised if it drops further by tip-off tomorrow.
Tip: Valparaiso Crusaders +15.5 @ $1.92