NFL preview: Week 11

A big night of NFL lies ahead and we look to get back to top form in America’s most watched sport.

Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:

Buffalo Bills @ LA Chargers

The Bills floundering offence has been handed to rookie QB Nathan Peterman whose first job will be to go on the road and steer the team toward an unlikely win.

What’s interesting (and worrying) is Buffalo’s defence has gone completely off the rails these last two weeks – the good news is the Chargers are unlikely to take advantage of that.

Despite Phillip Rivers being cleared to play, this Chargers team has not scored over 21 points in its last month of football – their highest return on the season was when they scored 27 on the league-worst Giants.

In fact, the Chargers haven’t been involved in a game that featured more than 37 points since that game on 8 October.

Buffalo’s offence has averaged a mere 292.0 yards per game this season and with Peterman being thrown into the lineup it’s hard to see how they’ll improve on that number here.

While we do expect the Bills to bounce back defensively we don’t see them troubling the Charges offensively and that’s a key factor in our leaning this one.

The Unders has cashed in four of Buffalo’s last five road games, while the Chargers have seen their last four straight also remain Under the points total.

LA has also had its last six straight games against AFC opponents remain Under the total and we’re confident of that trend continuing here. Sharp money came in early on the total and we also expect it to pour in once more before kick off.

Tip: Under 41.0 points @ $1.92 (PalmerBet)

 

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

The Bears completely capitulated as home favourites last week, but they’re in their preferred position of being home underdogs this time around.

Detroit meanwhile head to Soldier Field with a healthy defensive line that should trouble Bears QB Mitch Trubisky.

Chicago’s rookie QB is without a host of Wide Receivers and that’s making this Bears team too one-dimensional on offence. They rant ball as well as anyone in the league early in the season but their ground game has disappeared over the last couple weeks as a result of Trubisky’s lack of options elsewhere.

Aside from their game at New Orleans it’s fair to say Detroit’s defence on the road has been above average, and they’ll force a lot of issues for Trubisky with their pass rush.

Chicago also boast one of the best pass rush defence’s in the league and they’ll look to take advantage of Matthew Stafford, who doesn’t perform particularly well in cold conditions outdoors.

The Bears defence hasn’t given up more than 23 in any of their five home games this year, and the Unders has hit in four of their last five at home. Meanwhile, Detroit has seen seven of their last eight road games go Under the total when facing a team with a losing record.

The Unders has cashed in the last five straight meetings between these sides in Chicago and our projections have this one staying Under the total almost 69% of the time.

Tip: Under 41.5 points @ $1.86 (UniBet)

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have the unfortunate task of having a home game against the Patriots played on neutral turf.

History shows this is not a good recipe for Oakland, who will play their home game in Mexico City – something that will only favour the “road team”.

New England is coming off a huge win in Denver and have spent extra time in Colorado preparing for the high altitude in Mexico City.

Oakland have all of 0 interceptions this season and have struggled consistently with defending passes to opponents tight end’s – now they have to try and slow down arguably the best QB-TE combination in the league.

The Patriots defence continues to improve with each passing week and their offence continues to do its thing – the chance to rack up a big score against the Raiders os not only possible, but highly likely.

New England are in the midst of a five game win streak (covering the line in four of those) and are holding their opponents to an average of 13 points during that span.

The Pats are 5-0 against the spread this season against teams with a losing record and are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games following a cover.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have managed to cover just once in their last seven games overall (a last second win over the Chiefs) and the favourite has covered four of the last five between these teams.

Our projections show a strong lean on the Pats and we love them while the line is under 7.5 – we have them covering 71% of the time and expect them to run all over this Oakland defence.

Tip: New England Patriots -7.0 @ $2.05 (CrownBet) (1.5 units)

Punter Problems NFL multi

Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
LA Chargers

$2.14 (1.5 units)

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