A very tough loss on Friday morning has us hungry to cash in on some weekend NFL action.
Here’s our best bets for the action ahead:
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins offence remains the worst in the league, with Jay Cutler and co. managing just 12.2 points per game so far this season.
Things aren’t likely to get much better for the Dolphins either, with DaVante Parker likely to miss this contest with an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, the Jets have proved a lot of doubters wrong early this season on both ends of the football, yet they still rank among the bottom half of the league in points scored this season.
While they are obviously a step-up from Miami’s league-worst offence, Josh Mccowen’s side have managed just 18.2 points per game to start the year.
Neither of these sides boast any run game (Miami averaging 87.4 rushing yards per game, New York averaging 105.2) and so a lot will depend on the arm of Cutler and McCown who aren’t exactly putting up big numbers to start the year.
It’s also worth noting that both these sides are banged up on offence which should result in a lot of broken plays and incomplete routes.
Their Week 3 clash was an absolute route, with the Jets comfortably walking off 20-6 winners, with the only TD conceded coming on the final play of the game.
It’s hard to see either of these sides putting up 20+ points here and so we’ll take the obvious pick and go with the Unders once again.
All five of Miami’s games this season have gone Under the points total, while the Jets have seen three of their last four sail well under the total as well.
Our data has these teams combining for no more than 34.1 points giving us a strong play here.
Tip: Under 38.5 points @ $1.93 (1.5 units)
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
The Bears are being very underrated here, and while we don’t want to pick against Cam Newton and this offence we do want to use them for what they’re worth.
The Panthers disappointing loss the Philadelphia last week halted some of their momentum but they still showed they can put points on the board.
Newton will be tested once more by this Bears pass rush and Carolina will need Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey active in order for this defence to be forced into some tough decisions.
What does come as a blow for the road team is the absence of star linebacker Luke Kuechly.
What is interesting however is that the team has gone 6-2-1 in favour of the Unders in the nine games they’ve played without him since 2014.
The Bears are certainly a run first offence, and they could have a tough time moving the chains with regularity against a defence that allows just 83.3 yards along the ground per game.
Mitch Trubisky could be in for one of his toughest tests in the pocket in trying to avoid DE Julius Peppers, while Newton could face similar trouble trying to deal with the Bears pass defence.
Chicago allow just 215.8 yards per game through the air and have conceded just 17 points in their last two home games this season.
Expect the Panthers to struggle early in this one and if the Bears defence can contain Newton’s receivers for small gains this one could be a very low-scoring affair.
Our data is showing this one to fall Under the points total almost 68% of the time, and that number could go up higher depending on the final decision on Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin.
Tip: Under 40.5 points @ $1.91
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings home defence is arguably the best in the league, and the chance to feast on an underwhelming Joe Flacco will certainly sit well with the home side.
If it wasn’t for the horror show in Cleveland that is DeShone Kizer, Flacco would own the worst QB rating in the NFL (66.1).
In his six games this season, Flacco has thrown 4 TD’s while giving up 8 Interceptions – not great when you’re about to head to one of the toughest home field advantages in the league.
What’s worse for Baltimore is they have no run game that they can lean on to alleviate the stress on Flacco.
The only good news for the Ravens is that they’ll likely face a Vikings team that will be steered around the park by Case Keenum as opposed to Sam Bradford.
That being said, Keenum has been far more impressive this season than he has been in the past – throwing five TD’s with just one interception.
The Ravens offence ranks near the bottom of the league in yards per play, and now they’re coming up against a defence that ranks near the top in that category.
Minnesota have covered three of their last four at home and are 20-6 against the spread in in their last 26 home games. The Ravens, meanwhile, have covered just three of their last 13 on the road.
Take the home side to cover here, with our data showing the home side winning this one by more than a TD.
Tip: Minnesota Vikings -4.5 @ $1.96
Punter Problems NFL multi
$2.04 (2 units)