NBA best bets: Thursday, 9 November

A strong bounce back has us back on the right track and now we’re looking to push on ahead of a big weekend of sport.

Here’s our best bet for the action ahead:

Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns

The Heat look a completely different outfit with Hassan Whiteside back in the starting lineup.

A disappointing loss to the Warriors should be taken with a lot of encouragement given they held the defending champs to under 100 points on their home court.

They round off their West Coast road trip with a matchup against a less than consistent offence, which should struggle to generate good looks against a well-drilled unit.

Offensively, things haven’t really worked out for Miami with the team currently ranked 25th in the league in scoring – averaging just 101.2 points per game.

The absence of Dion Waiters will have a huge impact on their scoring as well, especially given the team is already without Rodney McGruder.

Inconsistent offence coupled with stellar defence certainly gives Miami everything we want when backing Under a large points total on the road, especially against a Phoenix team that is only averaging 104.8 points per game themselves.

The Unders has cashed in Miami’s last four games and has also hit in sox of the Heat’s last seven games against teams with a losing record.

Six of the last seven meetings between these two sides in Phoenix have all gone Under the points total and we have a strong lean on that trend continuing here. It’s also cashed in seven of the last nine overall between the sides.

Our projections are showing a combined 205.8 points being score here giving us huge value on the Unders.

Tip: Under 213.0 points @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors

The Warriors overcame a horrible shooting night to still cover the line in their last start against Miami – expect that scoring slump to be very short lived however.

The Timberwolves own one of the most inviting defence’s in the league – they allow 109.8 points per game and let opponents shoot at an alarming 49.5% from the field.

They now head to arguably the toughest home court in the league to face a team that scores 118.5 points per game while shooting an incredible 51.2% from the field.

Add it all together and you get a very lopsided total.

The bookies have done their best to accomodate for this by setting such a high points total but it frankly isn’t high enough given the play we’ve seen from both these sides.

One of the biggest concerns for Steve Kerr’s side this year has been the number of turnovers they’re conceding when in possession, and that doesn’t bode well when playing a young, athletic team that will happily run the floor all game long.

The T’wolves currently force 15.7 turnovers per game and if they can turn those into easy buckets early on they’ll force the Warriors to push the tempo in front of their home crowd.

For Golden State it’s simple – this team is too good to shoot as poorly as they did last time out once again. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson both shot poorly from beyond the arc, but they’ll both find good looks against a team that doesn’t defend the perimeter well.

The biggest benefactor however will be Kevin Durant, who will literally get every look he wants against Andrew Wiggins. As good as Wiggins can be with the ball in his hand metrics show that he is one of the worst on ball defenders in the league.

The Overs has cashed in five of Minnesota’s last six road games and they’ve gone 4-1 on the Overs in their last five games against the Pacific division.

The Warriors have also seen six of their last seven home games against teams with a winning record go Overs, while the team has seen 10 of their last 12 games against Western Conference opposition go Overs as well.

Tip: Over 229.0 points @ $1.91 (Centrebet)


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