TWO undefeated teams kick-off Week 3 of CFB action as Boston College head on the road to take on Wake Forest.
This line has moved around quite a bit and seems to have settled at 5.0/5.5, which is a shame given we were really liking the +7.0 available for Wake Forest in this one.
That being said there’s still a very favourable option available and one we’re not shying away from.
Boston College have put up some big totals to start the year but they’ve played FCS Holy Cross and FBS independent Massachusetts – hardly a test for any team.
A game against a familiar opposition will give us a better indication of what to expect from the Eagles this year, but points aren’t going to be quite so easy to come by.
The last eight straight meetings between these sides have stayed Under the points total and we expect a similar showing here – especially when you take the weather into account.
Hurricane Florence is expected to begin hitting the area as early as Thursday morning, meaning we could be in for a wet and windy affair at BB&T Field. The game is scheduled to go ahead, with kick-off being moved forward in anticipation of the heavy storm.
Last year, Wake Forest ran out convincing 34-10 winners on the road in a game that opened at even money. That scoreline was the highest total we’ve seen between these programs since way back in 2009.
In fact, the last five meetings between these sides in North Carolina have all stayed Under 44.5 points – a far cry from the 54 points being offered up in this one.
We can only assume this is another market overreaction based on the high offensive numbers that the Eagles are putting forward to start the year. To expect them to do it on the road against a tough Demon Deacons outfit is unjust and the number floating around is almost 12 points higher than what we’ve projected! (We have a total of 40.8 points projected in this one).
Only once has either team scored more than 24 points in the last five meetings at BB&T Field, with the average total number of points scored sitting at 38.8 points during that run.
Wake Forest’s defence is being very much undervalued here as well. It’s important to remember that this team averaged 8.2 tackles for loss yardage last season (ranked 7th in the nation) and have held Boston College to an average of just 2.9 rush yards per attempt in their last two meetings with them.
The Eagles also ranked third in the nation last season in pass defence so expect a lot of the home side’s offence to be centralised around the ground game and soaking up the clock in order to move the chains.
This total seems a little suspect but if it is set as a reaction to what we’ve seen from these sides this season then we’ll be cashing in with absolute ease to start the week.
Tip: Under 54.0 points @ $1.88 (Unibet) (2 units)