IN this article we’ll give you some information about picks that we have our eyes on which should hopefully help you formulate your NFL DFS lines for each NFL week.
We’ll look at the main slate (3am Monday morning start) on Draftstars with the GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) in mind. This article is typically written on a Saturday so not all injury/transaction information will be to hand at the time so keep an eye on the players mentioned for any changes.
There is so much information out there for NFL DFS and a lot of it can be confusing with endless data. I want to keep this as simple as possible so anyone can pick it up and have a go. If you haven’t had a chance to read my ‘Beginners Guide to NFL DFS’ article then check it out to gain some basic insight and understanding on how to construct lineups.
The Rams are coming off the bye which gives the most exciting coach in the league the
opportunity to come up with the perfect gameplan. We saw Daniel go to work on this Lions
defence and now they have to face Goff. Detroit rank 31 st against the pass and give up the 11th most FP’s per game to QB’s. Not helping Detroit is the fact they rank 29th , 30th & 32nd to the WR1-3 spots, which means we should see plenty of looks for the WR group.
There is a whole range of efficiency numbers that point to Detroit being potentially the worst pass D in the league. If Stafford can somehow find a way to attack a Rams D that has cooled off a bit in the backfield, then Goff should have enough attempts to crack a 25+ score. He has had at least 35 pass attempts in the last 4 games and while there is genuine concern about Gurley and this spread, I believe Goff does enough to give you a good return.
Here is an absolute gift at a position that we would normal be paying 3x this price for. Chase Daniel is tipped to get the start again this week after playing against the Lions last week. He managed to put together 19.4 DS points in a 2 TD performance, not a bad return on a $5k investment. This week he goes up against the Giants D who isn’t the Lions, but still puts Daniel in an OK spot to at least get you double digits. The Giants rank 28th to the pass and while they don’t give up a large amount of QB fantasy points (9th best), they do give opposing QB’s plenty of looks. Their D gets to the QB on just 3.1% of dropbacks and typically allow more than 32 pass attempts. Daniel won’t return the world and expectations should be below what he scored last week, but opportunity is there and with the weapons he has available we should see a value return of at least 2x and allow us to pay up for studs.
Other options – Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins
Hunt hasn’t made as many headlines this year as he did last season and that’s largely due to the fact the guy that hands him the ball has burst on to the scene, but he’s doing enough to be fantasy relevant still. His numbers don’t leap off the page but this week he gets an excellent matchup against a Raiders D that comes in ranked 30th against the run and 23rd against pass catching RB’s – something Hunt is very capable of. The Raiders are seeing opposing RB’s average just over 26 rushing attempts per game, the 2nd highest in the league.To go with those 26 carries per game, they’re allowing 134 rushing yards per game as well.
The Chief will have all their options available but I firmly believe at this price Hunt is the best bang for your buck and should finish in the top 3 RB’s for the slate.
Note: This was written before news broke of Hunt being a shit human. Look for Spencer Ware as a viable replacement.
You could make a case for either Oakland RB in this game, given they are going against a
Kansas City defence that ranks 32nd to the rush and 27th against pass catching RB’s. It’s the game script that has me leaning towards Richards here though as you would believe that the Raiders will be behind and they’ll be throwing more than they’re rushing. This puts
Richards in a better spot as he is the pass catching back on this team. In PPR formats, the
Chiefs have given up the most points to pass catching backs and if the Raiders are any
chance of keeping this thing close they will need to rely on some catches out of the
backfield to keep the KC offence off the field. The Raiders have targeted their RB the 4 th
most in the league and I am confident they bring this gameplan against a susceptible KC
defence. He’s not going to give you a huge score but he should provide enough of a return on his price to help.
Other options – Todd Gurley, Phillip Lindsay
This is a great week to pick up WR’s on the 2 nd tier and I believe we’re getting a premium WR at a bargain price here. At first glance, the matchup doesn’t look that great for Hopkins. The Browns rank 4th against the pass and he’s coming off 2 games in a row where he had just 6 targets. But digging in to the numbers a bit more it uncovers the real matchup opportunity that Hopkins has this week. First, Coutee is out which helps funnel some more targets towards Hopkins. Second, the Browns have averaged over 24 targets to WR’s this season which is the 2nd highest total in the league. Third, looking through the direct matchup data it looks like Thomas will get the Ward coverage which means Hopkins will avoid the better outside corner. We’ve seen what other WR1 names have done to the Browns so far this year and Hopkins is up there with them in the premium group, we’re just getting him cheaper.
There’s some awkwardly priced WR’s this week and most of them make me feel
uncomfortable picking them, this one included. That said, I think Ellington has the best opportunity to do something (closely followed by Jets WR’s) and return enough value to
positively contribute to your lineup. The Rams have struggled in the secondary of late and
are now allowing the 5th highest FPPG to WR’s. Ellington should get a favourable matchup
here against Hill who struggled against the Chiefs. They are already sitting bottom 10 in the league for slot coverage and with the expectation that Stafford will need to throw a lot to keep up with the Rams offence, Ellington should get enough targets to turn them in to
quality receptions. In his only 2 games with the team, he’s has 16 targets for 12 receptions so I like the opportunity he has at this price point.
Other options – Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore
After paying up for a disappointing Kittle last week, it’s back to the old pay down at TE and
get value option. If you can afford to pay up at TE then Kelce is your man but I am all about the value here and I think Brate fits that spot this week. He is basically the last TE standing after Howard got put on IR and while he isn’t the biggest target volume on the team, he makes the most of the targets he does get. Adding to that is the fact that Winston likes to look for his TE’s in the RedZone, Brate should get his fair chance. The Panthers are allowing the most FPPG to TE’s and given up 9 TD’s in 11 games this season. This game is a stack opportunity at the 54.5 total so going with some Panthers and running it back with a cheap Brate/Humphries combo could be the option.
Other options – Eric Ebron, Greg Olsen
The Bears D comes in to this game on the back of 4 straight double digit games, with one of those games hitting 28 DS points. They now get Eli Manning and the 7th lowest implied team total on the board. The Bears have the best overall ranked defence, number 2 against the pass and number 1 against the run. To further complicate things for Manning, the Bears
rush defence is just about unstoppable and Eli has been sacked 38 times this season – the
highest in the NFL. The Bears will have their hands full with the Valentine Holmes like
Saquon Barkley but I trust their front to stand up to him. Remember, the Bears are starting
Daniel so the D will need to be at their best if they want to allow Daniel a chance at winning the game for them. You’re getting an absolute premium defence for a bargain here and they will be locked in to all my lineups.
Other options – Houston Texans, Denver Broncos
Agree or disagree with my picks? Whether you’re new to DFS or an old hand I’d love to hear from you. Feel free to drop me a tweet (@ausmojo), always open to answer any questions or chat DFS on Twitter.