IN this article we’ll give you some information about picks that we have our eyes on which should hopefully help you formulate your NFL DFS lines for each NFL week.
We’ll look at the main slate (3am Monday morning start) on Draftstars with the GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) in mind. This article is typically written on a Saturday so not all injury/transaction information will be to hand at the time so keep an eye on the players mentioned for any changes.
There is so much information out there for NFL DFS and a lot of it can be confusing with endless data. I want to keep this as simple as possible so anyone can pick it up and have a go. If you haven’t had a chance to read my ‘Beginners Guide to NFL DFS’ article then check it out to gain some basic insight and understanding on how to construct lineups.
Andrew Luck $18,060 (IND)
Here’s a guy that gets little mention each week in the DFS world. It’s almost like no one even acknowledges the Colts, even though Luck is coming off a 4 TD game last week. Yes, he’s lost some of that deep ball threat since surgery and everyone is wary of him coming up injured again but let’s just look at his numbers. He is averaging over 44 pass attempts per game – ranked 1st. He’s only 2 passing TD’s behind Mahomes and we all know how good that kid has been this year. He’s also sitting top 10 in total passing yards. Yes, I know he’s thrown 8 INT’s but when you lead the league in passing attempts, you’re going to inevitably throw a volume of INT’s. Fortunately he gets an Oakland team this week that ranks 31st against the pass and looks like they’ve given up on the defensive side of the ball. We have a magic 50 game total and a field goal spread so we should see a close game, leading to 4 quarters of QB effort from Luck. He has Hilton back and Ebron looks like he’s in a great smash spot to support Luck with another multi TD effort.
Derek Carr $14,170 (OAK)
Looking down the list of names under about $17k there isn’t anything to get excited about so we’ll target the IND vs OAK game again with Derek Carr. We saw Cooper get shipped to Dallas during the week which might scare a lot of people off playing Carr however I don’t see how this affects Carr too poorly. Cooper was 3rd on the target list and largely ineffective so far this season so we should see Carr continue to push ahead without a major hiccup. We have that 50 game total and nice opportunity to stack Carr with Cook/Bryant or even Nelson if you so wish. Carr is rested, at home and has the keys to the cupboard so to speak. No one is expecting the Raiders to do anything for the rest of the year with Cooper gone and Lynch now on the IR so Carr has all the opportunity to just play football. The Indy D had 42 points put on them by the Jets, 38 by the Pats and 37 by the Texans in the last month. We can expect that a Raiders offence with a quality QB, very good TE and average WR group can put up somewhere around the mid 20’s here.
Other options – Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton
Kareem Hunt $16,930 (KC)
I have to start with an apology. An apology for saying Zeke was a no brainer last week. He pissed us all off and cost good cash! That’s DFS I guess. Ok, with that out of the way let’s move on. I absolutely love Hunt in this spot this week against a Denver defence that has been gashed by RB’s in October. Hunt put up 26.5 FP’s against Denver earlier this month, rushing for 121 yards and TD on the day. Now at home, we can probably expect much of the same from Hunt with Denver ranked 28th to the run and 20th to pass catching backs – something Hunt is very good at. They are giving up the 8th most FP’s to RB’s through 7 weeks and after just facing a shambles of an offence in Arizona, they’ll need to adjust quickly to match the Chiefs. Hunt at home, 10 point fav, 31+ implied team total and a 53.5 game total are all positives. Even if the Chiefs blow this thing up, we should see Hunt pound the ball all game.
Raheem Mostert $6,580 (SF)
This pick is an absolute flier and likely depends on the health of Breida coming into the game. That said, there is a very good chance Breida is out of this matchup so you can slide Mostert in with some confidence. He looked great last week when filling in for Breida and he now gets an Arizona defence that gets carved up by opposition RB’s, giving up the most rushing yards and TD’s. They give up the most FP’s to the RB position and can’t handle pass catching backs that well. His numbers don’t look that great but when you start third on the depth chart, you’re rarely going to have great numbers. This week is his chance to really step up however, likely stepping in to the RB1 role and for $6.5k he is worth at least one shot in a line-up which will help you jam Gurley or Mahomes in to go with him. As a Niners fan I am really keen to see what he can do this week.
Other options – David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay (if Freeman out)
AJ Green $18,820 (CIN)
AJ sits 9th in the league for targets at 69, a whole 13 targets ahead of his nearest team mate Boyd who has 56. Of those 69 targets, 12 of them have been RedZone targets, twice as many as Boyd. He has seen double digit targets the last 3 weeks which included 14 just last week, which he turned in to 7 catches for 117 yards. That was against a KC defence that statistically sits in a much better spot to the WR position than what this week’s opponent TB does. TB are ranked dead last to the pass and 23rd to the WR1 spot, the same TB that last week gave up 10 receptions, 97 yards and 1 TD to Landry. The Bucs have given up the 3rd most FP’s to WR’s this year which gives a nice opportunity to potentially stack Green with Boyd or even Dalton if you want. He is an absolute lock for double digit targets in this game and I feel very confident we’re going to land a 100 yard day with a TD included, potentially 2. A 54 game total and a nearly 30 implied team total, sign me up!
Martavis Bryant $8,260 (OAK)
Again we’re targeting the Indy vs Oak game with our value WR pick. There is a few options around this $8k – $10k mark but it’s Bryant who I think has the most upside. You would think that the Colts defence will likely focus in on Nelson which leaves Bryant to be moved around to try and work through the middle. I also like Nelson for what it’s worth and you can definitely go up and get him for an extra $1.5k, but everyone is likely to have him and part of a GPP strategy is to try and pivot where you can. I personally like stacking Carr with Cook from this game but I might play some Bryant just to get exposure to one of the WR group. He is a very capable receiver and can get his own big play if given the opportunity. He’ll need to step up now with Cooper’s departure and I think Bryant is a greater beneficiary than Nelson.
Other options – Robert Woods, Stefon Diggs
Eric Ebron $9,830 (IND)
The Colts are likely to be without Jack Doyle again for this one which means Ebron should be flying the solo TE flag once again, something he has excelled at. He has the most targets of any receiver on the Colts offence and he is double his nearest team mate for RedZone targets as well. He had a bit of a hiccup last week to the Bills but that was something to be expected with the Bills ranking 5th to the TE position. This week he gets to go against the Raiders who rank 32nd – last – to the TE spot so you can bet that Ebron will be looking forward to this matchup. He’s getting nearly 20% of Luck’s looks, leading the team in receiving yards as well as TD’s. With Luck under centre and averaging those 44 attempts per game, we’re likely to see Ebron targeted close to double digits in this one while hauling in a TD for good measure. I actually really like both TE’s in this game and wouldn’t be afraid to stack them.
Other options – Travis Kelce, CJ Uzomah
Washington Redskins $5,790
I know there is some great options at D/ST this week with the likes of Chicago at home to Darnold, the Steelers at home to Mayfield and even Arizona at home to a lacklustre 49ers outfit but we’re looking to save a little bit of cash with this pick so we’re keying in on Washington. Frustratingly, they shut down Zeke last week and took him out of the Cowboys gameplan. They are limiting teams to under 21 points most weeks, only the brilliance of Brees and company getting beyond that magic number a few weeks back. I am admittedly concerned that Barkley could come out and really trample the Skins D but I have gained confidence on the back of the Zeke performance last week. The Giants O-Line is a mess and I can see the Skins front getting after a scrambling Eli. That and the fact the Giants are in sell out mode so we can only assume that effort will be down on the Giants side of the ball. If that’s even possible? Have you seen the Giants? Yuck. This is a low total game for a reason, it will be ugly.
Other options – Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals
Mojo’s Money Man
Bengals/Bucs game stack
You can definitely make a nice little stack from this game. I’ve managed to put together a line that has a Dalton/Green/Uzomah/Evans stack that I feel comfortable with. You could even include Boyd and drop Uzomah if you wish, still putting together a competitive line. Evans is priced really cheap this week given his matchup and I think any stack you take from this game has to include him or Godwin, with both in nice matchups. A 54 point total and an expected shootout with multiple affordable receivers in good spots, sign me up.
Agree or disagree with my picks? Whether you’re new to DFS or an old hand I’d love to hear from you. Feel free to drop me a tweet (@ausmojo), always open to answer any questions or chat DFS on Twitter.