THE Bills are rolling heading into Week 9 and will look to take full advantage of a below-average defence in New York against the Jets.
We’re just going to say it straight up – we’ll be going against public money on this one.
The Bills are being heavily favoured by the public at the moment with 68% of spread bets coming in on the road side, which is interesting given how well the Jets have done covering the line this season.
New York is a perfect 4-0 against the spread at home this season, and 5-0 in their last five dating back to last season.
Jets QB Josh McCown has improved as the season has progressed, throwing nine TD’s in his past four starts after starting the season with just three in his first four. Tough conditions played a part in last week’s sloppy game against the Falcons, which led to the team almost abandoning the run game entirely.
Buffalo are currently allowing 266.4 yards per game through the air and we strongly feel that this Jets offence is capable of putting up more than enough points to cover, if not win outright. Th team also ranks 22nd in the league in total yards allowed per game at 346.6.
The question for the home side will be whether they can slow down the bills running game, with the team currently owning one of the worst run defences in the league. If they can do enough to keep LeSean McCoy at bay then this number is far too giving for the home side.
Despite playing well in recent weeks Buffalo has struggled against the AFC East, managing to cover the line just once in their last six overall against the division. They’ve also struggled in putting away lesser teams on the road, going 0-4 in their last four road games against teams with a losing record.
The Jets meanwhile enjoying playing the role of underdog, going 7-0 against the spread when facing off against teams with a winning record. More importantly though when it comes to these teams the home side is certainly the benefactor more often than not.
The home side is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between the sides, while the underdog has also covered four of the last five in this series.
Keep an eye on the line in this one but take the 3.5 that’s on offer because our guess is that sharp money will pull this one back toward that 3.0 scenario by kick off.
Tip: New York Jets +3.5 @ $1.89