WE kick-off our US Open tips a couple days later than we hope but we’re looking to make up for lost time.
Here’s our best bets for Day 3 at Flushing Meadows:
Leonardo Mayer v Richard Gasquet
Richard Gasquet will look to make light work of Argentine Leo Mayer in their opening round match.
The Frenchman, who hasn’t played his best tennis on hard court in the past, does hold a slight mental edge over his opposite having won their only previous meeting.
Gasquet was a straight sets winner (6-2, 7-5) in Paris, although that game did come on hard court.
Despite making a big jump in the latest ATP rankings Mayer has seen little-to-no action on hard court this year – spending most of the year chasing the clay court tournaments.
Mayer was a fortunate qualifier into the event after losing out to German Maximilian Marterer – making the odds available rather questionable.
With the match currently at one-set apiece we’re surprised that we can get Gasquet at a good price.
Our projections show Gasquet winning 78% of the time and giving us good value on a 2 unit play here.
Tip: Richard Gasquet @ $1.50 (2 units)
Jan-Lennard Struff v Alexandr Dolgopolov
It’s not often we look at underdogs so early in a grand slam but we feel the odds for this one are completely out-of-scope.
Struff is playing some great tennis this year and made a terrific run in last week’s tournament – making the semi-finals before losing out to no. 1 seed Bautista-Agut.
Despite a short hard court season to date the German certainly has the style to adapt to the faster surface – perhaps more so than his opponent here.
Dolgopolov has been one of the more disappointing players on tour this year, with the Ukrainian unable to reach his potential on any surface.
He was ousted by world no. 112 Thiago Monteiro in the opening round at Winston-Salem – the same tournament where Struff made such a positive impression – and despite eliminating Kevin Anderson in Cincinnati he’s failed to spark any momentum.
we’ve got a strong lean on the underdog here, with our model giving Struff a 68% chance agaist a player ranked 15 places below him in the world rankings.
take a play on Struff who is playing the better tennis and whose style should match up well in this one.
Tip: Jan-Lennard Struff @ $2.05